Lately I have been exploring around climate change and where the world is heading.

The starting point is the obvious acceleration of climate change. Something big has changed in the last 2 years, which comes after of a noticeable acceleration from around 2010, which comes after a continuous trend from the 1980s.

The problem with climate change is that these non linear effects are almost impossible to predict long term. We know that the sea level has to increase a few meters but we don’t know how long will it take. Or when will the arctic melt entirely. Or how bad the heatwaves, hurricanes or floodings are going to be each year.

Following some reading on world3, a new series “One decade to midnight” appeared. These 3 videos are an exploration on “limits to growth”, the 2023 recalibration of model3, and previous civilisation collapses.

I particularly explored the recalibration as I was already familiar with world3 and other Donella Meadows works. The main take away is that we are already hitting the resources limits. That it is more likely that our way of living will recede because of resources first before climate change.

This put in perspective the general lack of growth and constant crisis that have been around from ~2007. Cheap oil peaked and many other resources are starting to meet the same limits.

The exploration continued through 3 current events that seem to be related to the resource exhaustion ideas:

  • Current ridiculous US oil production
  • China and gold noises
  • The world turning authoritarian/tribal

The US oil production seems to be around keeping oil artificially low. I thought this has to do with the US running out of rope of accumulating debt without paying it back.

This is also connected with the lack of resolve to deal with the 2 wars around Ukraine and Israel. There are not enough resources for the US to have a final say.

I expect that the cheap oil and war impasses will come to an end after the US November 2024 election.

Then I listened to Luke Gromen and it added some context that made things easier to understand. The US dollar system is ending its dominance while countries are turning to gold and not going through that system.

In many ways it is the end of globalisation, at least with the dollar sign behind it. Big policy changes are required for most countries as the global order is changing, and authoritarian leaders can put the country above their people with ease through repression.

This new order requires constant boundary renegotiation, which requires armies and others means of power. China seems to have a big head start in this new world, owning the technology and processes that other countries want and increasing control over energy supplies.

Big inflation and recession seems on the table for most countries that were under the dollar umbrella. More GDP towards defence. More insecurity.

But also the end of “energy for granted” policies. Currency will become less demand focused and more energy coupled, which is good for the environment. Some industries like finance and advertising will take a hit because futures will be less valuable with high interest rates.

Unfortunately the expected correction from cheap oil seems due and climate change remediation will be a consequence of a smaller, harsher world, not global action.

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