End times by Peter Turchin describes a model for civilisation growth, revolution and collapse. Cliodynamics is the given name to this model, and CrisisDB is the database that they use to disect previous instances.

The intuitive idea behind this model is not new at all. Most people would feel or think that unsettled elites and inequality are behind most revolutions. And that these elites acquire power over time behind the scenes until they have enough power to defy the establishment.

The new insights that this book provides add many dimensions and features to the intuitive “group taking over” thought. It argues that popular immiseration is almost as effective as “too many elite people”. The 4 types of elite (wealth, military, burocratic and ideological). That very authoritarian and very democracic civilisations are safer that the ones in the middle. That individuals can make a difference.

At the same time it contextualises the current US revolution and provides many examples of historical precedent. This study gives some predictive power in the form of conditions for the revolution to stop: less elites, less popular immiseration and stopping the wealth pump.

For me it helps to think of the current situation as one of the many civilisational cycles, and makes the moral case to fight against inequality. It is easy to read and engaging, although I still need to read the appendixes which seem to go to the details of the modelling and are written in a different style.

I feel it is a similar style of book to technofeudalism in the sense that it is a “describe a thesis book”, however this one is more agreeable and therefore less controversial.